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UFC Fight Night 150: Alex Oliveira vs Mike Perry Betting Prediction

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April 26, 2023

NEXT STOP… Ottawa, Canada as the UFC kicks down the door of the Canadian Tire Centre this Saturday night for UFC Fight Night: 150.

Ottawa fight fans have been given a much better fight card then Russia received last week, full of main roster mainstays and the main event with possible title implications down the line. This edition of �?Squared UP’ was supposed to be a co-main event breakdown but here’s the thing… It won’t be.

Why do you ask? Well, allow me to retort. The co-main event tomorrow night will be a carnival act/circus s**t show when disgraced former NFL defensive lineman (turned wannabe MMA fighter) Greg Hardy, takes on Dmitrii Smoliakov.

Since a reputable organization like Odds Market doesn’t cover men who beat women like Greg Hady, we decided instead to analyze what should be the co-main event, and boy is it a good one. “Platinum” Mike Perry vs Alex “Cowboy” Oliveira. This should be a phenomenal fight. A true power boxer in Perry vs a well-rounded and balanced MMA fighter that is capable of beating you anyway in Oliveira.

MIKE PERRY (12-4) vs ALEX OLIVEIRA (19-6-1)

The fighting pride of Flint, Michigan Mike Perry is the definition of a brawler. While the UFC is chock full of gladiators, Mike Perry is one of the few that truly stand out in the crowd. To put it simply, the man is violent. Really violent. Perry initially burst onto the UFC scene in August of 2016 as a last-minute replacement at UFC 202. It took Perry all of three minutes to become a fan favorite when he knocked out Hyun Gyu Lim in spectacular fashion. That sent Perry off to the races, winning 4 of his first 5 fights in the biggest MMA promotion in the world. His fairytale beginning, however, has taken a bit of a turn. Mike Perry has since lost 3 of his last 4 fights and in desperate need of a win when he faces Alex Oliveira at UFC Fight Night 150. It is worth noting that this is Perry’s last fight on his current UFC contract and he needs a win, that makes him more dangerous than normal. Let’s break him down by the stats.

― STATS ―

Method of Victory •Significant Strikes (per/min) •Takedowns
▪11 wins by TKO ▪ 4.12 Landed ▪ 50% Accuracy
▪1 win by Decision ▪ 4.59 Absorbed ▪ 66.67% Defended
▪0 win by Submission

― PROS ―

Striking (Perry is an elite power boxer in the sport of MMA. He relies more on his hands than his feet but when he does strike with his legs he is effective. He cuts angles well due to his boxing background and while his hand speed isn’t great it’s more than serviceable.)
Power (It would not be an overstatement to say that Mike Perry hits harder than anyone in his weight class in the UFC. People often say wow “Blank has bricks in his gloves.” Well, mike Perry might actually dip his hands in concrete before he puts his gloves on. He doesn’t try to knock you out, he tries to put your head in the 8th row.)
Durability/Heart (Perry has been in a few wars during his 9 fight UFC career and he does not quit. He also does not get knocked out. In fact, he has never been knocked out in his professional MMA career. If you are going to beat him, you have to beat him another way because he does not allow you to impose your will on him. If Warrior had a picture next to the definition in the dictionary, it would be a picture of Mike Perry. The man is a machine.)

― CONS ―

Ground Game ( Mike Perry does not come from a wrestling background or a BJJ background. The only threat he poses on the ground is if he gets on top of you. If that happens he can easily GnP you to a TKO victory but especially this fight, he will be at a substantial disadvantage on the ground. He was submitted for the first time in his last fight against the other Cowboy, but the ground is clearly a place that Perry doesn’t want to be. If he is on the ground, chances are he is in trouble.)
Defense (For as great of a power boxer as Mike Perry is, his defense on the feet is surprisingly bad. He will be there to be hit. What Perry has in his favor this fight, is his opponent will be looking to get him to the ground. It is worth noting however for future fights, that he absorbs more significant strikes per minute then he lands. For someone that relies on striking, that is a potential problem down the line.

Alex Oliveira:

The best adjective to describe Alex Oliveira would be �?balanced’. The most Brazilian fighter is the UFC specialize in BJJ, but that isn’t necessarily the case for Oliveira. He does have four submission victories in his pro career but that is on the low end of fighters that hale from Brazil. Alex Oliveira is a better striker then he is anything else. 12 of his 19 victories in the UFC have come by way of knockout. When you look at Cowboy Oliveira he is not an imposing figure physically and he doesn’t have a ton of power either. He is just a freakish athlete that gets the job done more often than not. This will be Cowboys 15th fight in the UFC. Dana White doesn’t keep you around that long unless you are competent, exciting and successful and Cowboy checks all three of those boxes. Although Oliveira lost his last fight at UFC 231 to Gunnar Nelson, he takes the stage tomorrow night winning 6 of his last 8 fights. Let’s take a look at Oliveira by the stats.

― STATS ―

Method of Victory •Significant Strikes (per/min) •Takedowns
▪12 wins by TKO ▪ 3.01 Landed ▪ 38.81% Accuracy
▪3 wins by Decision ▪2.08 Absorbed ▪ 57.69% Defended
▪4 wins by Submission

― PROS ―

Speed ( Alex Oliveira has a significant speed advantage against Mike Perry everywhere. He cuts angles faster on the feet, his hand and leg speed is faster when he strikes. His muscle twitch reaction is twice as fast as Perry but he just doesn’t carry the power that Perry has.)
Fight IQ (This PRO coincides with the number of avenues that Oliveira has to win this fight. If it goes to the ground, he has a major advantage. If it goes to the clinch then Oliveira’s Muay Thai background gives him a big advantage and finally range. Oliveira IF smart should be able to stay on the outside and pick Perry apart similar to what Cerrone did until Perry made the mistake of bringing the other Cowboy to the ground.)

― CONS ―

The technique (Oliveira can be very wild at times and is known for throwing caution to the wind. It’s possible if he does this too often he can �?wild’ himself into a power hook from Perry that would put his head in the 8th row. He needs to stay at the range to avoid Perry’s power but his sloppy at times technique will put him in a dangerous position in this fight more than once.)
Stamina (Although his gas tank has gotten better the longer his career has progressed in the UFC, he has been known to gas out in the late rounds of fights. Perry also has shown signs of this happening in the later rounds of fights but it seems to be more defined in Cowboy’s fights.)
The Pocket (Oliveira is actually a solid counter puncher. The problem with that is in order to capitalize with counter punches you have to be in the pocket and in range of your opponent’s chin. That is a dangerous place to be when you are up against someone that has Perry’s power.)

Alex Oliveira vs Mike Perry Betting Prediction

This fight is really simple to breakdown. Does Perry land the big shot to turn the light out on Cowboy Oliveria? If he does then he wins the fight. If he doesn’t he loses, period full stop. If you plan on backing Perry in this fight them take him by TKO because 11 of his 12 wins have come by TKO. The X Factor in this fight for me is the desperation that Mike Perry has to win this fight. He has lost 3 of the last 4 and as I stated earlier, he really needs a win if he plans on signing a lucrative contract with the UFC for future fights. Does desperation win the day? As much as I want to say yes, I am just not sure. I have backed Perry in multiple spots lately at attractive dog prices and he hasn’t gotten the job done. People often sleep on Alex Oliveira and he just keeps winning. There is a reason why Mike Perry is (2.60) to win this fight and not the favorite, it’s because he has not landed that power shot needed the last couple fights. I think Oliveira wins this fight, he is just the more well-rounded and better fighter right now BUT I am not laying (1.55). Let’s go with an ACCA.

Alex Oliveira vs Mike Perry Betting Pick

ALEX OLIVEIRA and ANGELA HILL to win at 10/11 (1.90)